Summary
Coherent analysis and evaluation of complex decision problems necessarily involve the weighing of multiple sources of uncertainty, highly conflicting objectives, time-evolving and multi-faceted preferences, and the integration of opinions and desires of disparate stakeholder groups. Our overall objective is to develop Bayesian methodologies and computational tools for the rational, inclusive, analytic support of such decisions. Their development, we believe, will do much to enable true mechanisms of e-democracy.
The Bayesian paradigm of decision analysis provides perhaps the only fully justified, unified framework for supporting decision making. Until recently, however, this approach has been confined to relatively simplified settings, almost entirely limited to the support of small coherent groups of decision makers, wider and grander applications being hindered by technical and computational barriers. In recent years, the field has experienced a technical revolution that now opens the way to much larger scale Bayesian modelling and analysis. Developments in areas such as non-linear modelling, problem structuring, model selection, and Bayesian computation coupled with the advent of cheap computer power permit more complex and realistic modelling, which may be explored and presented through powerful interactive and intuitive graphical interfaces. More about the programme
For more detailed information please go to the TED homepage: go to website
TED Brochure (PDF 617 KB)
Duration
Four years: July 2002 - December 2006
