ESF Research Conferences

MedCLIVAR Final Conference

Mediterranean Climate: From Past to Future

6-9 June 2011

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Abstracts (PDF)

Final Programme

Sunday 5 June

16:00 - 20:30Registration
Monday 6 June

08:00 - 09:00Registration
09:00 - 09:30

Welcome

D. Laforgia - Rector of the University of Salento
L. Nicastro - Assessore all'Ambiente Regione Puglia
B. Ciccarese -  Assessore Provincia di Lecce
B. Avril - European Science Foundation
G. Aloisio - CMCC EuroMediterranean Center for Climate Change
P. Lionello - Chair of the MedCLIVAR programme

Session 1: Mediterranean climate: relevant and important scientific issues

Convenors:

P. Lionello - University of Salento, IT
P. Drobinski - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, FR
09:30 - 10:00 P. Lionello - University of Salento, IT
Mediterranean climate : recent progresses and open issues
10:00 - 10:30
P. Drobinski - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, FR
The Mediterranean water cycle: To couple or not couple, what are the questions?
10:30 - 11:00
P. Alpert – Tel Aviv University, IL
Global Dimming or Local Dimming? The Megacities Contribution
11:00 - 11:30Poster Session and Coffee Break

Authors in attendance

G. Hancz - Making use of scenario planning in identifying climate change-related research hotspots in the Mediterranean
MC. Llasat - The Report on Climate Change in Catalonia
I. Bladè - Climate in Spain: Past, Present and Future
M. Baldi - The role of the Euro-Atlantic circulation in the occurrence of summer temperature anomalies and extremes in the Mediterranean
Session 2: The circulation of the Mediterranean Sea: trends and changes

Convenors:

A. Harzallah - Institut National des Sciences et Technologies de la Mer, TN
V. Zervakis - University of the Aegean, GR
11:30 - 12:00A. Harzallah - Institut National des Sciences et Technologies de la Mer, TN
Variability and trends of the hydrographic characteristics in the Strait of Sicily
12:00 - 12:30
V. Zervakis - University of the Aegean, GR
Variability of the Eastern Mediterranean overturning circulation, with emphasis on Aegean Sea developments
12:30 - 13:00
K. Schroeder - CNR, IT
Thermohaline variability in the western Mediterranean Sea
13:00 - 14:30
Lunch
Session 3: Paleoclimatic evidence from the Mediterranean

Convenors:

J. Luterbacher - Justus Liebig University Giessen, DE

14:30 - 15:00
J. Luterbacher - Justus Liebig University Giessen, DE
A review of 2000 years of paleoclimatic evidence in the Mediterranean
15:00 - 15:30
Y. Kushnir - Columbia University, US
Atlantic role in Eastern Mediterranean hydroclimate variability throughout the Holocene
15:30 - 16:00
N. Waldmann - University of Haifa, IL
The Dead Sea sedimentary archive: insights into high resolution paleoclimate reconstructions of the last ~300 ka
16:00 - 16:30
Poster Session and Coffee Break

Authors in attendance

I. Rivetti - Long-Term Evolution of the Mediterranean Water Column and Biological Response
F.O. Amore - Coccolithophores response to Nao-like millennial forcing: a time-space reconstruction over the last 30 Ka in the Thyrrhenian sea
M. Morellon - Paleoclimatic reconstruction of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age from continental and marine records of the Iberian Peninsula
A. Schimmelmann - Paleoenvironmental transitions in the central Peloponnese: A sediment record from a former lake near Asea, Greece
A. Gogou - Reconstructions of climatic and productivity patterns in the NE Mediterranean Sea during the Holocene using biogeochemical proxies

16:30 - 18:00 Parallel sessions

Sala Donatello

(15 minutes each)

Session 1: Mediterranean climate: relevant and important scientific issues

H. Kontoyiannis - Influence of atmospheric circulation on turbulent air-sea heat fluxes over the Mediterranean Sea during winter: An overview
C. Gonzalez-Hidalgo - MOPREDAS, a new tool for subregional precipitation trend analyses of Spain
C. Kelley - The relative contributions of radiative forcing and internal climate variability to the late 20th century drying of the Mediterranean region
J. López-Parages - The ENSO influence on the Mediterranean rainfall. A multidecadal modulated relationship?
A. Mariotti - Decadal climate variability and drought in the Mediterranean region”
M. Zampieri - Recent temperature trend in the Middle East, Northern Africa and Eastern Mediterranean

Sala Raffaello

(15 minutes each)

Session 2: The circulation of the Mediterranean Sea: trends and changes

P. Fraunie - Impact of wind forcing resolution on the coastal turbulent stuctures and mixing
M. Herrmann - What induced the exceptional 2005 convection event in the northwestern Mediterranean basin? Answers from a modeling study
H. Kontoyiannis - Climatic variability of the near-surface sea temperatures in the Aegean-Black Sea system and relation to meteorological forcing

Sala Leandro

(15 minutes each)

Session 3: Paleoclimatic evidence from the Mediterranean

F. Adloff - Upper ocean climate of the Eastern Mediterranean during the Holocene Insolation Maximum – a model study
S. Akcer On - High-Resolution Late Holocene Climatic Records of Lakes and Lagoons at Western Turkey
C. Alvarez Castro - Meteorological Database Over The Mediterranean Sea Through Old Royal Navy Logbooks
R. Grimm - Ocean biogeochemical modeling of scenarios leading to eastern Mediterranean sapropel formation during the early Holocene
A. Persoiu - The interplay between North Atlantic and Mediterranean climatic influences in Central Europe during the Holocene: a view from cave ice cores
A. Prendergast - A palaeoclimatic framework for the late Pleistocene human occupation of the North African Mediterranean: correlating marine and terrestrial proxies from the stable isotope analysis of molluscs

19:00
Reception
At Grand Hotel Tiziano
Tuesday 7 June

Session 4: Synoptic patterns: climatology and trends

Convenors:

U. Ulbrich
- Freie Universität Berlin, DE
A. Jansà - AEMET, ES
09:00 - 09:30U. Ulbrich - Freie Universität Berlin, DE
A. Jansà - AEMET, ES
Synoptic patterns, cyclones and weather in the Mediterranean. Present situation and trends
09:30 - 10:00
R. Trigo - University of Lisbon. PT
Atmospheric circulation associated with major heat waves in the Euro-Mediterranean region
10:00 - 10:30
H. Flocas - University of Athens, GR
Explosive cyclones in the Mediterranean: vertical structure and dynamics
10:30 - 11:30Poster Session and Coffee Break

Authors in attendance

M. Reale - Characterization of cyclones producing intense precipitation events in the Mediterranean region
D.J. Brayshaw - Understanding the climatological structure of the Mediterranean winter-time storm track
D. Novotna - Phase-coherent oscillatory modes in solar/geomagnetic activity and climate variability
L. Scarascia - Links between Sea Level in the Northern Adriatic Sea and large scale patterns
G. Jordà - Atmospheric contribution to Mediterranean and nearby Atlantic sea level variability under different climate change scenarios
L. Cavicchia - Towards a long-term climatology of Medicanes”
L. Congedi - Assessing improvement of RCM with respect to GCM climate simulations over the Mediterranean region: mean monthly fields

Session 5: Mediterranean Sea level

Convenors:
M. Tsimplis - NOCS, UK
D. Gomis - Universitat de les Illes Balears, ES
11:30 – 12:00M. Tsimplis - NOCS, UK
D. Gomis - Universitat de les Illes Balears, ES
Open issues on long term Mediterranean Sea level variability
12:00 - 12:30
S. Josey - University of Athens, GR
Mediterranean Air-Sea Interaction :  An Overview of Basin Budgets, Impacts of Severe Heat Loss Events and Links to the Wider Climate System
12:30 - 13:00
E. Alvarez - University of Athens, GR
Regional hindcasts and climate projections for the study of long term Mediterranean Sea level variability
13:00 - 14:30Lunch

Session 6: Modeling of the Mediterranean climate system

Convenors:

L. Li - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, FR
P. Ruti - Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development, IT

14:30 - 15:00

L. Li - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, FR
A review on recent efforts of the Mediterranean regional climate modeling

15:00 - 15:30
P. Ruti - Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development, IT
Climate Local Information in the Mediterranean region: Responding to User Needs
15:30 - 16:00
U. Mikolajewicz - Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, DE
Modeling Mediterranean Ocean Climate for the LGM and the Early Holocene
16:00 - 16:30
Poster Session and Coffee Break

Authors in attendance

T. Agacayak - The effect of meteorological conditions on PM10 in Istanbul
J. Ciarlo - Investigating relationships between Oscillation Patterns around the Mediterranean and their influence on aerosol transport using a Regional Climate Model (RegCM4)
S. Becagli - A study of anthropic and natural sources of aerosol in central Mediterranean Sea by bulk PM10 and size-segregated aerosol chemistry
Y. Mamane - Characterization of Coarse and Fine Particles in Tel Aviv, Israel, during Dust Storm Episodes of Spring 2006
M.A. Ramos - Changes in Present and Future Circulation Types Frequency in Northwest Iberian Peninsula
I. Güttler - Modelling recent climate and climate change over the eastern Adriatic”
G. Maggiotto - Effects of climate change on UHI with focus on Mediterranean cities

16:30 - 18:00

Parallel sessions

Sala Donatello

(15 minutes each)

Session 3: Paleoclimatic evidence from the Mediterranean

H. Reade - North African Palaeoclimate over the last ~80 ka: Isotopic Analysis of Mammalian Tooth Enamel from Northeast Libya
S. Desprat - Holocene vegetation and marine environment variability in Central Mediterranean from a direct land-sea correlation
B. Martrat - Climate of relatively stable warm periods. A Mediterranean paleo-perspective
G. Orombelli - Holocene glacier fluctuations in the Italian Alps
M.A. Sicre - PaleoMex (Paleo-Mediterranean) Initiative
I. Unkel - StymphaCore – Reconstructing the Climate History of the Northern Peloponnesus, Greece

Sala Raffaello

(15 minutes each)

Session 4: Synoptic patterns: climatology and trends

J. Garcia-Serrano - Large-scale atmospheric response to eastern Mediterranean summer SST anomalies
A. Douguedroit - Main circulation types associated with weather regimes of significantly decreasing precipitation in the Mediterranean (1950 - 2000)

Followed by:

Session 6: Modeling of the Mediterranean climate system

R. Aznar - Towards a more complete knowledge of the Iberian ocean waters climate through baroclinic ocean climate simulations”
J.C. Dutay - Simulation of anthropogenic CO2 uptake in the Mediterranean sea with the NEMO-MED12 model: impact on water masses acidification
G. Sannino - Mediterranean Coupled Models comparison: response of the thermohaline circulation to climate change
S. Somot - Regional Climate System Modelling of the Mediterranean region at CNRM: a multi-component approach to study climate variability

Sala Leandro

(15 minutes each)

Session 5: Mediterranean Sea level

J. Sepic - Mediterranean sea level variability changes and projections at high frequencies (1-100 days)
L. Fenoglio-Marc - Water mass variation in the Mediterranean Sea and relation to climate change
M. Marcos- Changes in storm surges in southern Europe during the 21st century”
A. Shaw- Sea Level Reconstruction using Altimetry and Tide Gauges within the Mediterranean Basin
M. Said - Climatic change and sea level variations off Alexandria, Egypt

19:00
Guided Tour of Lecce Old City Center
Meeting point "Porta Napoli"
Wednesday 8 June

Session 7: Aerosols chemistry and climate

Convenors:

F. Dulac - CEA, FR
J. Lelieveld - Max-Planck-Institut für Chemie, DE
09:00 - 09:15

F. Dulac - CEA, FR
The chemistry-aerosol Mediterranean experiment (ChArMEx) initiative

09:15 - 09:30J. Lelieveld - Max-Planck-Institut für Chemie, DE
Increasing heat stress and air pollution in the Middle East
09:30 - 10:00
S. Pandis - Carnegie Mellon University, US
Air Quality in a Changing Climate
10:00 - 10:30
S. Kinne - Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, DE
Lecture Title TBA
10:30 - 11:30
Poster Session and Coffee Break

Authors in attendance

G. Bertini - Forests and climate change. Recent evidences from the ICP-Forests intensive monitoring network in Italy
K. Cindric - Trends and variability in precipitation extremes along the eastern Adriatic
M. Krželj - Climatologic analysis of northern Adriatic Sea physical variations occurred in the recent period (1970-2007)
V. Muradyan - Studying the dynamics of the ecosystems of mountainous country applying multi spectral satellite images (ARMENIA)
S. Seubert - Ability of Synoptic Downscaling techniques for analysing precipitation extremes in the Mediterranean area
G. Vogt - Percentile-based extreme indices of precipitation in the Mediterranean area in a multi-model ensemble of global climate models

Session 8: The climate of the Mediterranean region in future climate projections

Convenors:

S. Planton - Meteo France, FR
J. Jacobeit - Augsburg University, DE

11:30 - 11:45

S. Planton - Meteo France, FR
Application of climate models for regional climate change projections in the Mediterranean area

11:45 - 12:00
J. Jacobeit - Augsburg University, DE
Application of statistical methods for regional climate change projections in the Mediterranean area
12:00 - 12:30
H. Paeth - University of Wuerzburg, DE
Detection of climate change in the Mediterranean basin: The added value of regional climate models
12:30 - 13:00
S. Krichak - Tel Aviv University, IL
Evaluation of the role of the moist air transport and intensity of jet streams in the Mediterranean precipitations based on results of an AOGCM simulation experiment
13:00 - 14:30Lunch
Session 9: The Mediterranean Climate research: Integrated and National projects

Convenors:

V. Ducrocq - Meteo France, FR
14:30 - 15:00

V. Ducrocq - Meteo France, FR
HyMeX – an observation and modelling programme dedicated to the Mediterranean Water Cycle

15:00 - 15:30
A. Navarra - Istituto Nazionale Vulcanologia e Geofisica, IT
A changing climate, an adapting world: what did we learn from the CIRCE project
15:30 - 16:00
S. Somot - Météo-France, FR
The international Med-CORDEX project: A multi-component and multi-model approach to study the physical processes, the variability and the trends of the Mediterranean regional climate system
16:00 - 16:30
Poster Session and Coffee Break
16:30 - 18:00
Parallel sessions

Sala Donatello

(15 minutes each)

Session 7: Aerosols chemistry and climate

M. Gaetani - Summer Mediterranean SST impact on Saharan aerosols transport: seasonal modulation and related atmospheric circulation regimes
Di Sarra - Radiative forcing by Mediterranean aerosols in the infrared spectral range

Followed by:

Session 8: The climate of the Mediterranean region in future climate projections

Barrera-Escoda - Dynamical downscaling of climate change projections for Catalonia (NE Spain) during the 21st Century
M. Dubrovsky  - Projection of future climate in the Mediterranean based on multiple GCMs and stochastic weather generator
I. Bladè - Connections Between The Summer Nao And Drying In The Mediterranean Region

Sala Raffaello

(15 minutes each)

Session 9: The Mediterranean Climate research: Integrated and National projects

C. Pizzagalli - Climate data analysis in the WASSERMed project
B. Acma - Climate change and tourism: southeastern Anatolia region and southeastern Anatolia project (GAP) in Turkey as a case study
G. Coppini - Mediterranean Operational Oceanography Network in support of environmental applications
M. Todorovic - Climate change impact on agricultural water demand in Italy
M. Tonani - MyOcean: Mediterranean Monitoring and Forecasting Centre

Sala Leandro

(15 minutes each)

Session 10: Extremes and impact of climate variability and change

Paxian - Dynamical downscaling of future climate change of extreme events in the Mediterranean area
J. Kysely - Precipitation extremes in regional climate model simulations estimated by the region-of-influence method
Di Filippo - Climate-change induced bioclimatic shifts in Italian beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) forests assessed through a tree-ring network crossing the Mediterranean-Temperate biomes
S. Mathbout - Study on climate change and its potential impacts on vegetation over last five decades in Syria
H. Rendell  - Extreme rainfall events: changing magnitudes, frequencies and impacts in the Mediterranean
P. Sousa  - Links between fire regimes in Iberia and large-scale meteorological variability
I. Tsanis  - Climate change induced trends on water availability in the Island of Crete, Greece
A.M. Ramos - Evolution of extreme temperatures over Portugal - recent changes and future scenarios

20:00
Conference Dinner
At Grand Hotel Tiziano
Thursday 9 June


Session 10: Extremes and impact of climate variability and change

Convenors:

MC. Llasat - University of Barcelona, ES
E. Xoplaki - Universität Bern, CH

09:00 - 09:15

MC. Llasat - University of Barcelona, ES
Hydrometeorological Risks evolution in Catalonia (Spain): climate variability and vulnerability


09:15 - 09:30E. Xoplaki - Universität Bern, CH
Large-scale atmospheric circulation driving extreme climate events in the Mediterranean and related impacts

09:30 - 09:50
A. Toreti - Universität Bern, CH
Extreme precipitation in the Mediterranean: evolution and related large scale circulation

09:50 - 10:10
E. Fischer - ETH Zurich, CH
Consistent geographical patterns of changes in high-impact European heatwaves

10:10 - 10:30
A. Iglesias - Universidad Politecnica de Madrid
A protocol for early drought warning systems in Mediterranean countries

10:30 - 11:00
Coffee Break
11:00 - 11:30
D. Gomis - Universitat de les Illes Balears, ES and the MedCLIVAR book leading authors
Mediterranean  climate from past to the  future: the second MedCLIVAR book

11:30 - 13:00

Discussion Panel

Convenors:
V. Artale - Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development, IT

M. Gacic - Chair of the CIESM committee on Physics and Climate of the Ocean
An observational strategy for the Mediterranean Sea circulation and the MedSHIP programme

R. Molinari - International CLIVAR Project Office, UK
The future  CLIVAR and WCRP and its potential relation to the next version of MedCLIVAR


13:00

Lunch


14:30 - 15:00
Press Conference