ESF Conference in Partnership with LFUI
Continuing Challenges in Earthquake Dynamics: New Methods for Observing and Modelling a Multi-Scale System
24-29 September 2011
Preliminary Programme |
| Saturday 24 September | |
| 17:00–19:00 | Registration at the ESF Desk |
| 19.00 | Welcome Drink |
| 19:30 | Dinner |
| Sunday 25 September | |
| 09.00-09:20 | Conference Opening and Welcome Message from the Chair |
| Session I - Constraints on earthquake physics from geological/laboratory measurements Chair: Sandy Steacy, University of Ulster, Northern Ireland, UK | |
| 09.20-10.00 | Phil Meredith, University College London, UK Spatio-temporal evolution of fracture and flow driven seismicity: laboratory simulations |
| 10.00-10.40 | Thomas Fischer, Charles University Prague, CZ Triggering and driving forces of earthquake swarms and injection-induced seismicity |
| 10.40-11.10 | Coffee break and Posters |
| 11.10-11.50 | Francois Cornet, Institut de Physique du Globe Strasbourg, FR On the relationships between seismic and aseismic motions |
| 11.50-12.30 | Masao Nakatani, University of Tokyo, JP Growing Dc in conservative slow labaratory friction |
| 12.30 -13.00 | Discussion |
| 13:00 -15:00 | Lunch |
Session II – Observations and modelling of multi-scale earthquake dynamics | |
| 15.00-15.40 | Caroline Francois-Holden, GNS Science, NZ |
| 15.40-16.20 | Giulio Di Toro, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia Rome, IT Fault weakening during earthquakes |
| 16.20-16.50 | Coffee/Posters |
| 16.50-17:10 | Luisa Valoroso, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, IT The complex architecture of the 2009 MW 6.1 L’Aquila normal fault system (Central Italy) imaged by high-resolution earthquake locations of a large dataset |
| 17:10-17:30 | Julian Lozos, University of California, Riverside, US Rupture propagation and ground motion of strike-slip stepovers with intermediate fault segments |
| 17:30-17:50 | Anthony Sladen, Université de Nice – Sophia Antipolis, FR The 2011 Magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake: Mosaicking The Megathrust From Seconds To Centuries |
| 17:50-18:20 | Discussion |
| 19:00 | Dinner |
| Monday 26 September | |
| Session 2 (cont.): Observations and modelling of multi-scale earthquake dynamics Chair: Joan Gomberg, US Geological Survey Seattle, US | |
| 09.00-09.40 | Poster pitches |
| 09:40–10:20 | Jean Schmittbuhl, CNRSUniversity of Strasbourg, FR |
| 10:20-10.50 | Coffee Break ad Group Photo |
| 10.50-11:10 | Markos Avlonitis, Ionian University, GR Multi-scale modeling of earthquake sources via stochastic differential constitutive equations |
| 11.10-11.30 | Alice-Agnes Gabriel, ETH Zurich, CH Transition and Macroscopic Source Properties of Dynamic Rupture Styles |
| 11.30-11.50 | Chung-Han Chan, Department of GeosciencesNational Taiwan University, TW Possible stress states before and after the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake |
| 11.50-12.10 | Delphine Fitzenz, University of Evora, PT A Bayesian Framework to Rank and Combine Candidate Recurrence Models for Specific Faults |
| 12:10 - 13:00 | Discussion |
| 13:00-15:00 | Lunch and break |
| Session 3: Mechanisms for earthquake triggering Chair: John McCloskey, University of Ulster, UK | |
| 15.00-15.40 | Jeff McGuire, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, US Controls on Intermediate Term Predictability of Transform Fault Earthquakes |
| 15.40-16.20 | David Shelly, US Geological Survey, US Impact of static and dynamic stress changes on tremor and creep along the lower-crustal San Andreas fault |
| 16.20-16.50 | Coffee/Posters |
| 16.50-17:30 | Joan Gomberg, US Geological Survey Seattle, US |
| 17:30-18:10 | Sylvain Barbot, California Institute of Technology, US An Integrated View of the Mw 6 Earthquake Sequence at Parkfield |
| 18:10-18:40 | Discussion |
| 19:00-20:30 | Dinner |
| 20:30-22:30 | Posters |
| Tuesday 27 September | |
| Session 3 (cont.): Mechanisms for earthquake triggering Chair: Sebastian Hainzl, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, DE | |
| 09.00-09.40 | David Marsan, Université de Savoie, FR Modelling of the foreshock sequence prior to the 2011, MW9.0 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake |
| 09:40–10:20 | Ana Ferreira, University of East Anglia, UK Kinematic earthquake source models: uncertainties and prospects |
| 10:20-10.50 | Coffee/Posters |
| 10.50-11:30 | John McCloskey, University of Ulster, UK Long-term modelling of stress on subduction zones |
| 11.30 - 11:50 | Flaminia Catalli, ETHZ-Zuerich, CH Stress triggering at geothermal sites: a preliminary study at Basel |
| 11:50 -12.30 | Shinji Toda, Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto, JP Widespread seismicity excitation and static stress shadow following the 2011 M=9.0 great Tohoku, Japan, earthquake |
| 12:30-13:00 | Discussion |
| 13:00 | Lunch |
| 14:30 | Free Afternoon |
| 19:00 | Dinner |
| Wednesday 28 September | |
Session 4: Statistical seismology | |
| 09.00-09.40 | Sebastian Hainzl, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, DE Earthquake modeling based on physics and statistics |
| 09:40–10:20 | Matt Gerstenberger, Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences, NZ A time-dependent update of the New Zealand seismic hazard model considering the Canterbury sequence |
| 10:20-10.40 | Sandy Steacy, University of Ulster, Northern Ireland, UK Application of Coulomb and hybrid Coulomb/statistical models to the Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquake sequence |
| 10.40-11:10 | Coffee/Posters |
| 11.10-11.50 | Jiancang Zhuang, Institute of Statistical Mathematics, JP Foreshocks and the Bath law explained by earthquake clustering models |
| 11.50-12.30 | Max Werner, Princeton University, US Spatial Distributions of Foreshocks and Aftershocks: Static or Dynamic Triggering? |
| 12.30-13.00 | Discussion |
| 13:00-15:00 | Lunch |
| 15.00-15.40 | Mark Naylor, University of Edinburgh, UK Exploring aspects of earthquake predictability: When our intuition lets us down |
| 15.40-16.20 | Rapporteur overview and introduction to the discussion Shane Murphy, University of Ulster, UK |
| 16.20-16.50 | Coffee/posters |
| 16:50-18:20 | Sandy Steacy, University of Ulster, Northern Ireland, UK Forward look and final discussion |
| 19:00 | Get together Drink and Conference Dinner |
| Thursday 29 September |
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Breakfast and Departure |
This conference is organised by the European Science Foundation (ESF) in partnership with the Leopold-Franzens-Universität Innsbruck (LFUI).
